What Minnesota Needs to Show Against North Dakota

Minnesota finally returns to 3M Arena at Mariucci Thursday night, still searching for its first win under Brett Larson.

And the opponent isn't getting any easier.

North Dakota comes to town for a two-game rivalry series, giving the Gophers another difficult test after opening the season with four road games against Michigan Tech and Minnesota Duluth.

At 0-3-1, Minnesota has plenty to work on. The passing has been inconsistent, puck management has been sloppy, and the Gophers have struggled to sustain offensive-zone pressure. Those problems were evident again last weekend in Duluth, where Minnesota suffered a 7-1 loss Friday before battling back for a 2-2 tie Saturday.

But the weekend also revealed some encouraging signs, particularly when looking beyond the final scores.

Friday's blowout wasn't quite the disaster it appeared to be. Saturday's response wasn't nearly as convincing statistically as it felt at times.

Both games offered clues about what Larson is trying to build, and what Minnesota needs to improve if it's going to turn its season around.

With North Dakota arriving at Mariucci, those are the things I'll be watching most closely.

Minnesota's opening minutes Friday were rough.

Duluth came out flying, disrupted the Gophers' breakouts, won puck battles, and spent long stretches in the offensive zone. Minnesota struggled to establish a forecheck of its own and quickly fell behind 2-0.

But the Gophers began to settle in as the first period progressed. Christian Humphreys' line generated some sustained pressure, and Jacob Kvasnicka cut the deficit in half with an impressive individual effort, using his speed to beat a defender before burying his chance.

Minnesota carried some of that momentum into the second period. Brooks Cullen hit the post during an early push, and the Gophers looked increasingly comfortable.

Then the game fell apart.

A turnover led to Duluth's third goal. Shortly afterward, LJ Mooney took a five-minute boarding major, and an additional penalty to Axel Löfgren gave the Bulldogs a lengthy five-on-three advantage. Duluth scored three power-play goals during the major, turning a competitive 3-1 game into a 6-1 rout.

Minnesota never recovered.

Larson was sharply critical afterward, questioning his team's compete level, puck battles, and inability to sustain offensive-zone possessions.

But after reviewing the video, his assessment changed.

On Gopher Hockey Weekly, Larson reported that Minnesota actually held a 10-3 advantage in Grade-A scoring chances at five-on-five, along with a 13-10 advantage in overall scoring chances. He said the coaching staff's own video breakdown closely matched the findings of its analytics platform.

Larson put it this way:

“I'm not asking anybody to think we played great when we lose 7-1, but there were a lot more positives in that game 5-on-5 than you think.”

The publicly available numbers add some context.

According to Sportlogiq data shared by hockey analyst Ryan Sikes, Minnesota generated 2.76 expected goals Friday compared with Duluth's 2.60. College Hockey News' model tells a somewhat different story, favoring Duluth 2.6 to 2.0.

Those models don't measure chances identically, and Larson's Grade-A figures specifically concern five-on-five play. Still, they suggest Friday was more competitive in certain situations than the final score indicates.

That doesn't mean Minnesota deserved to win. The Gophers were sloppy with the puck, struggled early, took costly penalties, and got inconsistent goaltending. Their third-period response was disappointing, too.

But there was some good hockey buried inside a very bad result.

Saturday felt different.

Minnesota looked more physical, more determined, and better organized as the game progressed. Even after falling behind 2-0, the Gophers kept battling.

Then Brodie Ziemer took over.

The captain scored twice in the second period, first finding the net from the slot before tying the game with a between-the-legs finish on the power play.

After a quiet opening to the season offensively, seeing Ziemer get on the scoreboard was encouraging. His response also seemed to give the rest of the team some confidence.

Minnesota began showing stretches of the hockey Larson has been describing since taking over. Particularly late in the third period, the Gophers were able to connect offensive-zone shifts, protect the puck, and make Duluth defend for longer stretches.

But here's where things get interesting.

Duluth outshot Minnesota 36-18 and held a 77-38 advantage in shot attempts. Sportlogiq data shared by Sikes estimated the Bulldogs generated 3.78 expected goals to Minnesota's 0.79.

That's a significant gap, and it raises legitimate questions about how much Minnesota actually improved.

Larson called Saturday the team's best overall game of the season. On his radio show, he emphasized better puck battles, breakouts, defensive structure, and physical play. He also explained that Minnesota was trying to be more selective with its shots rather than throwing pucks toward the net without a good scoring opportunity.

I understand what Larson saw. I started seeing some of it myself, especially after Ziemer's first goal.

But the numbers suggest Minnesota still spent far too much time defending and wasn't generating enough dangerous offense.

I wouldn't necessarily call Saturday a better overall performance than Friday. What I would say is that Saturday offered the clearest glimpses yet of the type of hockey Larson wants this team to play.

The next step is doing it for longer stretches.

Through four games, my biggest concern isn't the lack of goals by itself. It's Minnesota's inability to consistently manage the puck and sustain offensive-zone pressure.

Too many possessions end with a mishandled pass, a lost puck battle, or a shot that doesn't lead to another opportunity. The Gophers get the puck out of their zone, change lines, and find themselves defending again.

It's a difficult way to play against good teams.

Larson has talked repeatedly about developing a five-man offense, with defensemen moving more, keeping pucks alive at the blue line, and getting involved deeper in the offensive zone.

One player I'll be watching closely against North Dakota is Evan Murr.

Murr arrived from Minnesota State with plenty of expectations, but I haven't seen him consistently stand out offensively through the first four games.

That began to change late Saturday.

There were a few shifts where Murr looked much more confident with the puck. Instead of simply holding the blue line and moving it along, he recognized opportunities to carry it deeper into the zone and create something.

That's the Evan Murr I've been waiting to see.

It's only a few shifts, but it's encouraging. And if Minnesota's defensemen can become more active offensively, it should help the Gophers extend possessions and create more opportunities for their forwards.

There's still a lot of work to do. But for the first time this season, I could see a little more clearly what Larson is trying to build.

Another major positive Saturday was Luca Di Pasquo.

After allowing four goals Friday before being replaced by Melvin Strahl, Di Pasquo returned to the net and stopped 34 of 36 shots, including seven in overtime.

Duluth generated plenty of dangerous chances, and Di Pasquo made several important saves to keep Minnesota within striking distance.

It was exactly the kind of response the Gophers needed.

Minnesota also got an important performance from its captain. Beyond the two goals, Larson praised Ziemer's physical play and leadership through the team's difficult start.

The Gophers eventually won the shootout on goals from Wyatt Cullen and Mooney. The official result remained a 2-2 tie, but after Friday's loss and an 0-3 start, the moment clearly meant something to the team.

Confidence matters, particularly for a group still learning how to play together.

I'll admit that I'm less optimistic about Minnesota today than I was before the season.

There's plenty of talent on this roster, but through four games, the Gophers haven't looked particularly comfortable playing together. The passing has been inconsistent, puck protection needs to improve, and sustained offensive-zone pressure has been difficult to come by.

Those aren't minor issues, and North Dakota isn't likely to make things any easier.

But Minnesota also has 13 newcomers, a new coaching staff, and new systems to learn. The first four games have come in difficult road environments, and it's going to take time for this group to find its identity.

So what would progress look like this weekend?

For me, it starts with puck management. Can Minnesota connect passes coming out of its own zone? Can the Gophers protect the puck under pressure instead of turning it over and immediately having to defend again?

Next is sustained offensive-zone pressure. I'm not necessarily looking for Minnesota to throw 40 shots on goal. I want to see longer possessions, better puck support, and more shifts where North Dakota is forced to defend.

I'll also be watching the defensemen. Larson wants a five-man offense, and we saw some encouraging signs from Evan Murr late Saturday. Can Minnesota's defensemen become more involved in extending possessions and creating opportunities?

And finally, consistency. We saw some good hockey Friday, even if it was buried inside a blowout. We saw stretches of the game Larson wants to play Saturday, even if the underlying numbers weren't particularly encouraging.

Can Minnesota put more of those stretches together?

Winning would certainly help. The Gophers need to start putting points on the board, and there's no reason to lower the expectations for this program.

But I'm not going to judge the direction of the Brett Larson era solely on what happens against North Dakota this weekend.

The more important question is whether Minnesota is beginning to look like a team that's learning how to play together.

Four games into a new era, the Gophers haven't given us much reason for confidence. This weekend, they have another opportunity to start earning it.

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